Exhibition Costs, Post-Pandemic

What do exhibitions cost today, compared to before the pandemic?

I usually keep topics short and evergreen. But we’re all wondering about this one, so here goes. Warning, this is twice as long as usual, and it gets cost-estimator nerdy. Mmm. Not your jam? More normal fare next time, I promise.

TL;DR Version:

Compared to right before the pandemic, exhibition fabrication bids are still slightly higher today than they would be from inflation alone. It’s around 30% higher, versus 23% - 25%. 

For future years, it's not clear whether escalation — normal future cost increases — should be predicted with normal numbers or something higher. If you want to be super conservative, maybe multiply expected inflation by around 1.2 and use that for a year. We’ll see.

Long Version:

Because there aren't major projects yet that have been designed, estimated, and built all since the pandemic was over, we are not 100% sure of the lasting cost effect of the pandemic above and beyond the normal effects of inflation. But tentatively, it appears that costs for exhibitions are still noticeably higher than inflation would predict.

Here is a recent webinar by Praxis, a network of expert museum professionals I know (many of whom have been guests on Making the Museum, the podcast). Over the course of the webinar, the panelists come to the conclusion in the summary above. 

(They also discuss what the actual costs are, not just the percent increases that I’m talking about here, so check it out for more.)

The upshot is that since 2019, the five years of specific inflation we have had would imply a generic cost increase of around 23% - 25%. But actual bids are more like 30% higher than pre-pandemic numbers, anecdotally.

Academically speaking, take that number with a grain of salt. The panelists in the webinar — and me too, for that matter — are not independent from the industry, like an economist studying the US economy would be. But if everyone in the industry is saying that same thing, the effect is the same: costs are slightly higher post-pandemic than pure inflation would predict.

Here’s the thing:

Bid prices are up more than normal.

What’s that mean for predicting future costs? Not clear.

If we assume that we are now "stable" then theoretically fabrication costs should go up similarly to generic inflation in subsequent years, not by "pandemic inflation". 

But to be safe, given that we're at 30% rather than 25% right now, a financially super-conservative approach might be to multiply normal predicted escalation by 1.2 for a year until we learn more.

Warmly,
Jonathan

P.S. While we’re at it, what did you think of this longer-format episode of Making the Museum? Hit REPLY and let me know. (Don’t worry, long nerdposts will never be the norm.)